Economic data continues to weaken in Canada and many forecasters expect the economy to slip into a recession next year.
The economy has been incredibly resilient, growing at a pace that was above the historical average during the first three quarters of this year, even as policy rates reached their highest in more than two decades.
European leading Indicators declined in October for the fifth consecutive month, suggesting the threat of a looming recession.
Exports for countries such as Japan and Taiwan remained solid, and domestic consumption was healthy across many Asian economies.
Central banks in many emerging-market countries were fast to react to rising inflation following the pandemic and started tightening monetary conditions in advance of developed-market central banks.
Executive summary
While a recession has been avoided so far in 2023, the economy will likely slow through the first half of 2024 before recovering later in the year. Savings that were built up during the pandemic are being depleted, government spending is set to slow and geopolitical frictions are intense.